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LESS UPS - MORE DOWNS
Still a big topic in Australian property news this week is the slowing of housing price growth after a strong last 12 months to March. The halt is due mainly to rising interest rates and less first-home buyer activity. The minutes from the RBA’s June meeting were released this week, and suggest that interest rates will be kept stable until inflation figures are released in August. But further rate rises are inevitable, and essential as a means for stabilising the Australian economy. So the collective sigh of relief heard from mortgage-holders this week is a temporary one. That’s right, there...
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Affordability Making A Comeback
I’m relieved to say that this week in real estate was somewhat less dramatic than the week in politics and it’s business as usual as property eases back from fever pitch. It appears that a large number of investors are going Country and Western, favouring property on the outskirts of metropolitan areas in NSW as well as Overlooked suburbs go gangbusters in Queensland. Outer suburbs are showing signs of greater growth and the Gold Coast, it seems, is no exception. Although capital growth in outer areas is not expected to be as strong as in CBDs, rents are expected to...
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TAX - POPULATION & INTEREST RATES
The topic that everyone has been keeping an eye on this week is the question of whether our new PM Julia Gillard would make amends to the proposed Resource Super Profits Tax. Over the past few months the proposal has caused backlash and criticism that the tax would affect almost every industry in Australia (however indirect the effect may be). Robert Gottliebsen last week explained his version of Why the resource tax could hurt house prices, saying that if the Resource Tax discourages foreign investment in Australian projects, Australian banks will struggle to refinance into the future, raising interest rates...
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Unemployment Remains Steady
In positive news for the Australian economy, data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the national unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) remained steady at 5.1% in June 2010. The June 2010 data showed that: Total employment increased by 45,900 people Full-time employment increased by 18,400 people (The 10th consecutive month Australia has seen a rise in the number of people employed full-time) Part-time employment increased by 27,500 people Total unemployment decreased by 200 people Participation rate increased 0.1% to 65.2% State Unemployment Rates - June 2010 (Seasonally Adjusted) NSW – 5.2% steady VIC – 5.4% steady QLD – 5.3% down 0.2% SA – 5.4% up 0.1% WA – 4.0% down...
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Aspiring first home-owners keep saving... and saving... and saving...
The news that rocked us this week was that Australian first-home buyers face 4.5 year savings wait to buy property according to a study released by Bankwest, and Queensland data provides no exception. In the sunny state, the savings time-frame has extended from an expected 4.2 to 4.7 years over the last twelve months. Whilst many Queenslanders are worried about the prospect of living with Mum and Dad for an extra 6 months or so, those approaching retirement are no doubt concerned about having to push back the plans of an empty nest. It could be a good sign then...
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A Vote of Confidence?
Everybody seems to be jumping up and down this week about the results of the Westpac - Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment, which revealed that consumer confidence posts best jump in 13 months with a record-breaking leap under comparative market conditions. The index was up 11.1% for the month of July, increasing in all components surveyed, although before you let that comfort you it’s interesting to note that some of the information from the survey has to make you wonder how confident people really are. Half of households worried over rates,and almost half the survey’s respondents aged under 50...
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Mining towns gaining street cred?
23rd July, 2010Residential researcher RP Data has suggested that an amicable solution to the Resource Super Profits Tax could put Mining towns back on the radar. The director of RP Data, Tim Lawless, said “Now that the Government and the resources sector seem to have come up with an amiable solution to the RSPT a greater level of certainty is likely to improve market conditions in the mining and resource intensive areas. For this reason it may be a good time to consider investing in resource markets.” RP Data analyst Cameron Kusher was careful to note that while a greater...
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Investors keeping market up
If you’ve felt the pinch mortgage-wise with several rate rises over the last 12 months, be prepared to further tighten your budget. Australian Banks are facing pressure over cost of lending and look likely to raise rates regardless of whether or not the RBA raises rates this month, putting pressure on holders of variable rate mortgage-holders. For banks, the cost of obtaining funds has increased as much as 35 basis points comparative to last year, and although Treasurer Wayne Swan has publicly frowned upon the notion of banks raising rates outside the RBA’s increases, banks may not have much choice but to implement hikes. It’s expected though that this...
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RBA keeps rates steady once again
The biggest news this week was the RBA’s decision to leave the cash rate at 4.5% for the third straight month following the return of the inflation rate to within the preferred range of 2-3%. Although, the RBA has warned that its forecast for strong economic growth in Australia is highly dependent on the commencement of various scheduled projects in the resource sector. Current strong economic conditions like low unemployment, stronger household spending and ongoing strong consumer confidence could see the inflation rate rise in coming months and, subsequently, interest rates. A report released by HIA has shown that New home sales fell 5.1% in June for the...
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Ready to embrace unit living?
There’s been a significant increase in the number of property listings online this Winter, particularly over June and July. The recent, and rather abrupt, slowdown of the Australian property market has put a halt to the number of sales occurring across the country, as well as contributing to the 9-year low in home loan commitments, so new listings are adding to a pool of stock which isn’t moving. SQM Research claims that supply now outstrips demand resulting in the slowed growth we’ve been seeing for the last 6 weeks. Many Market players cheer slowdown in house price rises, relieved at the lack of competition, increased level of choice and less...
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Affordability still in decline...
Housing affordability has been a prominent topic for a few months now, particularly surrounding talk of a housing bubble. This week, the June results of the HIA-Commonwealth Bank Affordability Index showed a 9.1% drop in the June quarter with the index now sitting lower than it has since September 2008. The affordability index pitches average house prices against average salaries and is one of the more accepted methods of detecting a housing bubble. Morgan Stanley’s chief economist Gerard Minack contradicted his tendency to be bearish about the property market in a note to his clients this week, explaining his fears of a bubble burst if Australian banks tighten credit,...
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Ageing population to hurt property?
Australia’s ageing population could hurt property prices in the future The reality of Australia’s ageing population is fairly old news but this week BIS economist Elod Takáts gave us a little more insight into what that actually means, namely how an ageing population can hurt house prices. “The study points out that housing prices are affected because people's consumption and savings patterns change as they age... Younger people typically save for old age by buying assets, while older people sell their assets to finance their retirement. The relative size of the group of asset buyers (the young), compared with the group...
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Positive outlook despite US uncertainty
Australia has positive economic outlook and would deal well with US fail Most experts are currently singing about Australia’s economic outlook despite continuing uncertainty in the US. Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan has said this week that Australia is well-placed to handle another GFC, in much the same way as we’ve dealt with the last two years: “strongly and very effectively”. A-REITSs out of the woods, and are saying goodbye to the massive losses which plagued them over 2008-09, no doubt making everyone feel at least a little bit better about the economy despite modest growth predictions for the next 12 months. The RBA isn’t easily convinced though,...
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